Mathematical modeling and epidemiology for HIV/STI Program Science
Our research focuses on answering questions about the biological, behavioural, and environmental (health systems and structural) mechanisms that underpin HIV and other sexually transmitted infection (STI) epidemics in different geo-social contexts. We develop and integrate mathematical models with the best available data to test hypotheses and to better inform clinical, programmatic, and policy decisions under a Program Science framework.
Our objectives are to:
1) Appraise HIV/STI Epidemics (“know your epidemic”): to understand why HIV/STI epidemics establish and persist where and when they do, and what leads to differences in their trajectories, size, and characteristics across regions.
2) Maximize HIV/STI Program Impact (“plan the response”): to optimize the design and delivery of HIV/STI programs by health-system and epidemic context.
3) Forecast Data Priorities (“monitor and adapt the response”): to systematically assess the influence of data uncertainty on model projections in order to prioritize future data collection.
Projects focused on modeling of HIV/STI epidemics in Canada are carried out in close partnership with:
Projects focused on HIV/STI epidemics in low and middle-income settings are carried out in close partnership with:
- Center for Public Health and Human Rights Key Population Program (Johns Hopkins University)
- Centre for Global Public Health (University of Manitoba)
- Ishtar MSM
- Karnataka Health Promotion Trust
- Kenya HIV Technical Support Unit
- Ukrainian Institute of Social Research
- HIV Modelling Consortium and the HPTN Modelling Centre (Imperial College)
Our projects largely fall under the following spheres:
- Causes and consequences of heterogeneity in HIV epidemics
- Covid-19 Research
- Syphilis transmission modeling
Our research is funded by Canadian Institutes of Health Research, the Ontario HIV Treatment Network, National Institutes of Health, and United States Agency for International Development.