How to get away with inequities in outbreaks: a SARS-CoV-2 modeling story

SARS-CoV-2 epidemics demonstrate considerable heterogeneity in what conditions lead to disproportionate risks of acquisition and onward transmission. In this talk, we examine the data in Ontario and elsewhere on potential mediators of inequities in rates of COVID-19 diagnoses, test positivity, and testing. We then use simple transmission dynamics models to discuss how examining underlying heterogeneity in mechanisms of onward transmissions could help inform a more tailored response, and the challenges in translating insights from transmission modeling into the implementation of public health prevention measures. We discuss how we might answer the following question: under what combination of assumptions and intervention strategies, could a public health response decrease, perpetuate, or increase inequities in the spread and health consequences of SARS-CoV-2?